Spawning aggregation released; all monitoring signals flip bearish
Cumulative catch at 33,208 MT; the weekly print falls to 2,174 MT, a 50.0% contraction from WK14. The four-model ensemble converges to a 35,261 MT base case — the tightest agreement of the season.
The Week 14 spawning aggregation released as a single-week event: weekly catch fell 50.0% to 2,174 MT and all four monitoring signals flipped bearish. CPUE breached the 4.0 viability line for the first time this season (3.98), >600g crossed the 30% terminal-migration threshold (31.6%), and weekly catch failed to hold the 2,500 MT sustain line. With the cohort in terminal spawning migration, the four-model ensemble converges to a 35,261 MT base case — the tightest agreement of the season.
All four monitoring signals flipped bearish; net 25 / 55 / 20.
Drag next week's catch; the projected base and regime verdict update from the report's own thresholds.
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The complete issue carries the full data tables, every model output and weighting, the size-grade and fleet detail, and the week-by-week signal monitor — in English and 繁體中文.
Research disclaimer.This publication is produced by Baixian Trade Commodity Research & Strategy for commercial and informational purposes only. It is current as of the stated week-ending date and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision; forward-looking figures involve uncertainty and should not be relied upon as guarantees. Regulatory and stock-assessment references reflect third-party findings and are reported without endorsement. Taiwan-origin and mainland-China-origin catch are distinguished for analytical accuracy only. See the full disclaimers for terms.