Base case advances to 40,187 MT on a third consecutive upward revision, even as accelerating maturation tightens the residual harvest window

At 2,463 MT, the WK17 print is down 28.2% from WK16 but still more than double the panel-mean WK17 weekly catch of 1,219 MT — a third consecutive week above the persistent-tail threshold. The four-week WK14–WK17 window has now contributed 12,420 MT, 31.8% of the entire season's cumulative — a terminal-phase contribution without precedent in the 2021–2025 panel. The season has resolved into a clear two-part structure: a disappointing peak window (WK7–WK11 averaged 3,526 MT/week against a panel mean of 7,069) followed by the longest, most durable post-peak tail in the calibration record.

The four-model ensemble lifts the base case to 40,187 MT — a third consecutive upward revision (18.0%, 7.9%, 5.6% from the WK13 trough; +34.5% cumulative). Bear holds at 39,192 MT (20%), Base at 40,187 (55%), Bull at 41,927 (25%); current cumulative has already cleared WK16's Bear and Base scenarios entirely. But the upside window is closing structurally: size composition has advanced to ultra-terminal territory — the >600g share jumped 17.8 points in a single week to 47.6%, now the dominant grade — and history shows that once the >600g share clears 55%, commercially meaningful catch ends within roughly a week. WK18 is the decisive read: above 2,000 MT extends the tail to a fourth week and lifts Base toward 40,500–42,000 MT; below 1,000 MT signals the long-awaited decline. Active vessels, down for the first time since WK7 (78→77), are the leading indicator to watch.