產卵聚集已釋放;四項監測信號全面翻空
累計漁獲量達 33,208 噸;當週漁獲降至 2,174 噸,較第 14 週收縮 50.0%。四模型集成收斂至 35,261 噸基準情境——為本季最緊密之共識。
第 14 週產卵聚集以單週事件形式釋放:當週漁獲下降 50.0% 至 2,174 噸,四項監測信號全面翻空。CPUE 本季首次跌破 4.0 可行性線(3.98),>600 克突破 30% 產卵洄游門檻(31.6%),當週漁獲未能守住 2,500 噸延續線。群體已進入末段產卵洄游,四模型集成收斂至 35,261 噸基準情境——為本季最緊密之共識。
四項監測信號全面翻空;淨 25 / 55 / 20。
拖曳下週漁獲;預測基準與態勢判讀將依本報告自身門檻同步更新。
This is the public summary. The full 24-page bilingual brief is distributed to intended recipients.
The complete issue carries the full data tables, every model output and weighting, the size-grade and fleet detail, and the week-by-week signal monitor — in English and 繁體中文.
Research disclaimer.This publication is produced by Baixian Trade Commodity Research & Strategy for commercial and informational purposes only. It is current as of the stated week-ending date and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision; forward-looking figures involve uncertainty and should not be relied upon as guarantees. Regulatory and stock-assessment references reflect third-party findings and are reported without endorsement. Taiwan-origin and mainland-China-origin catch are distinguished for analytical accuracy only. See the full disclaimers for terms.