Weekly BriefIllex Argentinus Weekly · No.WK15 · Week ending April 18, 2026

產卵聚集已釋放;四項監測信號全面翻空

累計漁獲量達 33,208 噸;當週漁獲降至 2,174 噸,較第 14 週收縮 50.0%。四模型集成收斂至 35,261 噸基準情境——為本季最緊密之共識。

BX-TRADE-CRS·Commodity Research & Strategy·Published April 22, 2026·EN·繁中·For intended recipients only
累計漁獲0本季迄今 · 含漁前期
當週漁獲0週環比 −50.0%
基準情境0四模型最緊密共識
>600克佔比0%突破 30% 終端門檻
The read

第 14 週產卵聚集以單週事件形式釋放:當週漁獲下降 50.0% 至 2,174 噸,四項監測信號全面翻空。CPUE 本季首次跌破 4.0 可行性線(3.98),>600 克突破 30% 產卵洄游門檻(31.6%),當週漁獲未能守住 2,500 噸延續線。群體已進入末段產卵洄游,四模型集成收斂至 35,261 噸基準情境——為本季最緊密之共識。

產季監測
互動圖表
圖表元件無法載入;下方信號監測與情境模擬仍可正常使用。
互動圖表——切換檢視、停留於任一週、開啟比較年份,或拖曳時間軸框選範圍。
信號監測

四項監測信號全面翻空;淨 25 / 55 / 20。

當週漁獲偏空
2,174 MT
低於 2,500 噸延續線
CPUE偏空
3.98
首次跌破 4.0 可行性線
>600克佔比偏空
31.6%
高於 30% 終端門檻
400克以上佔比偏空
82.0%
高於 70% 成熟化門檻
作業船數觀望
78
船隊維持;留意退出
尾段態勢偏空
0 wks
第 14 週激增後未延續
悲觀情境 25%
基準情境 55%
樂觀情境 20%
情境模擬

拖曳下週漁獲;預測基準與態勢判讀將依本報告自身門檻同步更新。

第 18 週漁獲假設
2,000
01,0002,0003,0004,000
預測基準情境
40,500
+313 噸(較當前基準)· 全季累計 → 35,215 噸
尾段延續——進入第四週
悲觀
基準
樂觀
預測
Full edition

This is the public summary. The full 24-page bilingual brief is distributed to intended recipients.

The complete issue carries the full data tables, every model output and weighting, the size-grade and fleet detail, and the week-by-week signal monitor — in English and 繁體中文.

Research disclaimer.This publication is produced by Baixian Trade Commodity Research & Strategy for commercial and informational purposes only. It is current as of the stated week-ending date and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision; forward-looking figures involve uncertainty and should not be relied upon as guarantees. Regulatory and stock-assessment references reflect third-party findings and are reported without endorsement. Taiwan-origin and mainland-China-origin catch are distinguished for analytical accuracy only. See the full disclaimers for terms.

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