Persistent-tail regime extends; second upward revision of the season
Cumulative catch reaches 36,628 MT on a +56.6% weekly rebound to 3,413 MT — the persistent-tail regime confirmed as multi-week. The ensemble base case is revised up to 38,058 MT, the season's second upward revision.
WK16 is a decisive upward inflection back into the persistent-tail regime first signaled at WK14, breaking from WK15's apparent decay. At 3,413 MT it is the second-highest weekly print of the post-peak phase, behind only WK14. The signal mix is the season's most divergent — size composition still points to advanced terminal phase while CPUE (6.25) and weekly catch point to sustained productivity. The base case lifts to 38,058 MT on the second upward revision; the scenario band widens to 2,861 MT as the bull case re-opens.
The season's most divergent mix — weekly catch and CPUE turned bullish while size composition holds bearish; net 20 / 55 / 25.
Drag next week's catch; the projected base and regime verdict update from the report's own thresholds.
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Research disclaimer.This publication is produced by Baixian Trade Commodity Research & Strategy for commercial and informational purposes only. It is current as of the stated week-ending date and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision; forward-looking figures involve uncertainty and should not be relied upon as guarantees. Regulatory and stock-assessment references reflect third-party findings and are reported without endorsement. Taiwan-origin and mainland-China-origin catch are distinguished for analytical accuracy only. See the full disclaimers for terms.