Weekly BriefIllex Argentinus Weekly · No.WK16 · Week ending April 25, 2026

延續尾段態勢延伸;本季第二次基準情境上修

累計漁獲量達 36,628 噸,第 16 週週環比反彈 56.6% 至 3,413 噸——尾段態勢確立為多週現象。集成基準情境上修至 38,058 噸,為本季第二次上修。

BX-TRADE-CRS·Commodity Research & Strategy·Published April 29, 2026·EN·繁中·For intended recipients only
累計漁獲0本季迄今 · 含季前
當週漁獲0週環比 +56.6%
基準情境0第二次上修 · +7.9%
>600克佔比0%聚集納入產卵前世代,回落至 30% 以下
The read

第 16 週為決定性的向上轉折,重回第 14 週首度浮現之尾段態勢,扭轉第 15 週的衰退跡象。3,413 噸為峰後階段次高之單週量,僅次於第 14 週。本週信號組合為本季最分歧——規格組成仍指向末段成熟,而 CPUE(6.25)與當週漁獲則指向產能延續。基準情境上修至 38,058 噸,為本季第二次上修;情境區間擴大至 2,861 噸,樂觀情境重新打開。

產季監測
互動圖表
圖表元件無法載入;下方信號監測與情境模擬仍可正常使用。
互動圖表——切換檢視、停留於任一週、開啟比較年份,或拖曳時間軸框選範圍。
信號監測

本季最分歧之信號組合——當週漁獲與 CPUE 轉多,規格組成維持偏空;淨 20 / 55 / 25。

當週漁獲偏多
3,413 MT
重回 2,500 噸天花板之上
CPUE偏多
6.25
弱季類比年首見第 16 週高於 4.0
>600克佔比觀望
29.5%
自 30% 終端觸發點回落
400克以上佔比偏空
82.5%
明確高於 70% 成熟化門檻
作業船數觀望
78
船隊維持;留意退出
尾段態勢偏多
2 wks
延續至連續第二週
悲觀情境 20%
基準情境 55%
樂觀情境 25%
情境模擬

拖曳下週漁獲;預測基準與態勢判讀將依本報告自身門檻同步更新。

第 18 週漁獲假設
2,000
01,0002,0003,0004,000
預測基準情境
40,500
+313 噸(較當前基準)· 全季累計 → 38,650 噸
尾段延續——進入第四週
悲觀
基準
樂觀
預測
Full edition

This is the public summary. The full 24-page bilingual brief is distributed to intended recipients.

The complete issue carries the full data tables, every model output and weighting, the size-grade and fleet detail, and the week-by-week signal monitor — in English and 繁體中文.

Research disclaimer.This publication is produced by Baixian Trade Commodity Research & Strategy for commercial and informational purposes only. It is current as of the stated week-ending date and does not constitute investment, trading, or financial advice, nor an offer or solicitation. Forecasts are model-derived estimates subject to revision; forward-looking figures involve uncertainty and should not be relied upon as guarantees. Regulatory and stock-assessment references reflect third-party findings and are reported without endorsement. Taiwan-origin and mainland-China-origin catch are distinguished for analytical accuracy only. See the full disclaimers for terms.

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延續尾段態勢延伸;本季第二次基準情境上修 · Baixian Trade