延續尾段態勢延伸;本季第二次基準情境上修
累計漁獲量達 36,628 噸,第 16 週週環比反彈 56.6% 至 3,413 噸——尾段態勢確立為多週現象。集成基準情境上修至 38,058 噸,為本季第二次上修。
第 16 週為決定性的向上轉折,重回第 14 週首度浮現之尾段態勢,扭轉第 15 週的衰退跡象。3,413 噸為峰後階段次高之單週量,僅次於第 14 週。本週信號組合為本季最分歧——規格組成仍指向末段成熟,而 CPUE(6.25)與當週漁獲則指向產能延續。基準情境上修至 38,058 噸,為本季第二次上修;情境區間擴大至 2,861 噸,樂觀情境重新打開。
本季最分歧之信號組合——當週漁獲與 CPUE 轉多,規格組成維持偏空;淨 20 / 55 / 25。
拖曳下週漁獲;預測基準與態勢判讀將依本報告自身門檻同步更新。
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