台籍阿根廷魷魚 2026 年漁獲軌跡與預測分析
第 14 週產卵聚集——4,343 噸，較第 13 週激增 51.3%，為五季面板中前所未見——重設全季軌跡。四模型 BMA 集成將全季基準情境上修 18.0% 至 35,309 噸（樂觀 37,383 噸 · 35%；悲觀 32,541 噸 · 10%）。
第 14 週交出本季最重大之單週發展：漁獲量 4,343 噸，較第 13 週激增 51.3%，為五季面板中前所未見。全船隊 CPUE 激增至 7.95 噸/船，涵蓋 78 艘作業船——此為群體聚集以進行產卵洄游之生物特徵，而非傳統意義上之回升。四模型 BMA 集成將全季基準情境上修 18.0% 至 35,309 噸，並將悲觀情境機率收窄至 10%，因全船隊已觸及廣域族群聚集，近期休漁情境與數據不符。
第 14 週產卵聚集推升操作信號轉多，成熟化同步推進；樂觀情境升至 35%。
拖曳下週漁獲；預測基準與態勢判讀將依本報告自身門檻同步更新。
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