Commodity research, rendered live from the desk
Weekly briefs, quarterly outlooks, and special reports across the species we trade.
Base case advances to 40,187 MT on a third consecutive upward revision, even as accelerating maturation tightens the residual harvest window
Cumulative catch reaches 39,108 MT with the WK17 print at 2,463 MT — a third consecutive week above the persistent-tail threshold. The ensemble base case is revised up to 40,187 MT; expected value 40,423 MT, +5.4% versus WK16.
Species Weekly Briefs →
Base case advances to 40,187 MT on a third consecutive upward revision, even as accelerating maturation tightens the residual harvest window
Cumulative catch reaches 39,108 MT with the WK17 print at 2,463 MT — a third consecutive week above the persistent-tail threshold. The ensemble base case is revised up to 40,187 MT; expected value 40,423 MT, +5.4% versus WK16.
Persistent-tail regime extends; second upward revision of the season
Cumulative catch reaches 36,628 MT on a +56.6% weekly rebound to 3,413 MT — the persistent-tail regime confirmed as multi-week. The ensemble base case is revised up to 38,058 MT, the season's second upward revision.
Spawning aggregation released; all monitoring signals flip bearish
Cumulative catch at 33,208 MT; the weekly print falls to 2,174 MT, a 50.0% contraction from WK14. The four-model ensemble converges to a 35,261 MT base case — the tightest agreement of the season.
Special Reports & Forecasts →
2026 Illex Season: Catch Trajectory & Forecast Analysis
The WK14 spawning aggregation — 4,343 MT, a 51.3% surge over WK13 without precedent in the five-season panel — resets the season. The four-model BMA ensemble lifts the full-season base case 18.0% to 35,309 MT (Bull 37,383, 35%; Bear 32,541, 10%).